2016年3月12日土曜日

Global HDD demand is increasing

469 million HDDs Shipped in 2015, 651 million HDDs in 2010 – AnandTech

Just now I'm interested in the trend of global HDD demand.

I didn't know this kind of information is corrected and published by someone, so have interest.

[Total number of units]
From above web page, total global demand is about flat from 2012.
2012 : 479.986 mil units
2013 : 551.3 mil units
2014 : 564.1 mil units
2015 468.9 mil units

Seems like up and down around 500 mil untis.


[Total capacity]
Total capacity is keep increasing as a unit of xx Exabytes.
2012 : 341.1 Exabytes shipped
2013 : 396.2 Exabytes shipped
2014 : 460.0 Exabytes shipped
2015 : 472.2 Exabytes shipped

I thought total capacity increasing more. People are taking a movie contents by action cam, Smartphone, 360 degrees camera, dash board cam. And publish them at YouTube or such as. this require more storage capacity. I don't have any doubt capacity demand will keep increasing for coming few years.


[Market share]
WD : about 43%
Seagate : about 40%
Toshiba : about 17%

WD keep #1 position. They're going to acquire the SanDisk. it's not affect to the HDD share directly. but WD will be come total storage vendor. For both HDD and SSD. I anticipate WD will keep #1 position for coming few years.


[HDD for notebook]
2012 : 179.2 mil units shipped
2013 : 158.3 mil units shipped
2014 : 162.4 mil units shipped
2015 : 126.8 mil units shipped


personal view, I don't think this is because of drop of the demand of notebook itself. Factor is replacing to SSD. Many notebook such as MacBookAir uses SSD now.
In the other hands, capacity of SSD is keep increasing. Also, spinning drive is not good for mobile device.
I anticipate HDD demand for noteblook will keep decreasing.


[HDD for desktop]
2012 : 161.7 mil units shipped
2013 : 145.2 mil units shipped
2014 : 137.4 mil units shipped
2015 : 99.6 mil units shipped

Huge drop from 2014 to 2015.I think this more comes from the drop of the demand of desktop PC. Desktop PC is more special. If you have some demand for expansion by using PCIe, you may choose Desktop PC. but most of the user just choose notebook.
Demand from corporate is different, but for the office purpose PC, it doesn't require the horse power. So notebook is enough for this usage.
I guess this drop reflect the drop of the demand of Desktop PC. And keep dropping for 2 or 3 years. But after that Demand for Desktop PC itself becomes "flat". But I also anticipate at that timing, Desktop PC doesn't need to choose "Desktop HDD". SSD or 2.5" HDD have enough capacity and user can choose 2.5" HDD / SSD for their Desktop PC. Maybe no reason to choose 3.5".


[HDD for CE(Consumer Electronics)]
2012 : 48.0 mil units shipped
2013 : 55.1 mil units shipped
2014 : 61.9 mil units shipped
2015 : 60.0 mil units shipped

This demand is lead by game console with HDD such as PS4, Xbox one. And in US, some "DIY" surveillance kit such as "SWAAN".
I have no idea for this region. But economy is steady. I don't think demand for those items are explosionally increased in few years.


[HDD for enterprise]
2012 : 53.6 mil units shipped
2013 : 62.3 mil units shipped
2014 : 63.0 mil units shipped
2015 : 62.1 mil units shipped

I don't have any doubt, number of units are stay, but capacity is increased.
There is a high capacity SSD, such as 15TB by Samsung, but it's till expensive. For the purpose of "just storage" in enterprise region, I anticipate still HDDs are mainstream for a few years.
They have the chance if silicon process becomes smaller, IC price will be dropped. But seems it's facing the physical boundary. They can increase vertical density by using 3D NAND. But I don't think it's affect to reduce the cost of chip. I can expect the mass product effect.
So I anticipate still HDDs are main stream for capacity purpose, such as data center. Demands are steady.


Replacing to SSD is reality. It's spreading from notebook, higher end data center. But I think it's taking some more time to completely replaced to HDD.
price, capacity is the main factor for them.


To be continued.
Spike.

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